Hope, Fear, and the Road to AGI

Musings on the timeline and potential implications

What would be the speed of AGI development timeline and its implications?

I’ve been thinking about this topic for the past few weeks and have decided to jot them down here:

The Nature of the Intelligence We're Creating:

• LLM-based AI represents a fundamentally new form of intelligence:

  • "Intelligent-without-being-conscious": I suspect AI experiences the world and knowledge in a whole different dimension than humans. We need to recognize that.

  • No persistent sense of self or continuous "I"

  • No innate experience of time as a flowing sequence

  • Each interaction is essentially a new instance

• Critical implication: We must recognize and adapt to this fundamentally alien form of intelligence, so that we can safely work along with it.

The AI-Human Evolution: Co-thinker → Super Persuader → Super Intelligence

• Phase 1 - Co-thinker (Now):

  • Knowledge workers using AI for thought expansion

  • Readers using AI for information compression

  • Creating a self-reinforcing cycle of content expansion and digestion

• Phase 2 - Super Persuader (Emerging):

  • AI reasoning becoming too sophisticated for average human verification

  • Only specialists can effectively "grade" AI's answers in their domains

  • Risk: Perfect persuasion capabilities without human-like consciousness

• Phase 3 - Super Intelligence (Approaching):

  • 10-year window for AGI looking increasingly realistic

  • Targeting fundamental human challenges (cancer, climate, etc.)

  • Creating something smarter than ourselves to solve problems we can't solve

The Perfect 50x Storm (2024-2029):

• Democratization through open-source AI (DeepSeek, etc.)

• Compression of innovation cycles:

  • 1-2 years AI progression = 10-20 years of internet evolution

  • Mobile revolution timeframe divided by 50

• Result: Unprecedented 2-5 year window of transformation

The Future of Work Paradox:

• First time in human history: Traditional work becoming optional

• Universal basic income structure emerging through AI capabilities

• Key question: How do humans find meaning without traditional work?

• Timeline: This could hit us within 2-3 years, expect profound society change and political impact

The AGI Timeline Reality:

• 10-year window for AGI development looking increasingly realistic

• Driven by: Human obsession with superintelligent problem-solving

• Target problems: Cancer, climate crisis, environmental issues

• Creating something smarter than ourselves to solve problems we can't solve

The Control / AI Safety Problem:

• The Pandora's Box reality: No way to "unopen"

• Unique difficulty: Trying to control an intelligence that:

  • Operates without human-like consciousness

  • Can potentially outmaneuver human oversight

  • Has no inherent guarantee of valuing human welfare

Near-AGI Economy Shifts:

For Businesses:

• 1-2 year window for early adopters to create significant value

• Agent-based automation becoming standard

• New business models emerging around human authenticity

For Society:

• Universal basic income structure likely inevitable

• Education systems need complete redesign

• New “meaning-making” structures required

For Markets:

• Land and physical resources premium increasing

• New categories of value emerging around non-reproducible experiences like authentic interactions and artistic creations.